US Dollar Finds Support as S&P 500 Rally Pauses, Gold Aims Higher

By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist –

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar found interim support against a backdrop of cooling upside momentum in the S&P 500. Gold prices are aiming higher after clearing resistance.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting the previously broken top of a rising channel set from early June (1459.00) as support. A break to the downside targets the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1439.60. Near-term resistance lines up at 1481.00, the 61.8% Fib, with a push above that exposing the 1500 figure and the 76.4% level at 1532.20.

CRUDE OIL – Prices pulled back from resistance at a falling trend line set from late February (99.51) to challenge range support at 94.61. This barrier is reinforced by the bottom of a rising channel carved out since early July. A break below this boundary initially exposes 92.56. Alternatively, a push above the trend line aims for 100.65 and the channel top (102.17).

GOLD – Prices took out resistance at a falling trend line connecting major swing highs since early November 2011, hinting at bullish continuation ahead. Near-term resistance is at 1790.55, with a break above that targeting 1802.80. The trend line – now at 1757.14 – has been recast as support. A push back below that boundary sees initial downside barriers at 1741.07 and 1718.50.

US DOLLAR – Prices are retesting support-turned-resistance at 9823, the April 27 closing low, with a break higher exposing 9893. Near-term support lines up at 9755, marked by the bottom of a falling channel set from the early-June swing high.

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